As well as establishing long term energy security is important, will see renewable energy capacity claim a 36% share of global cumulative installed capacity. All by the end of the decade. This comes from the latest report on business intelligence firm GBI Research.
Solar and Wind Rule
The report* explains that solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy will be the primary technologies. They are forecast to drive global renewable energy installed capacity. All from 1,695 GW in 2012 to 2,762 GW in 2020. Thereby boosting the industry’s share of the world total installed capacity. That’s from 30% to 36%.
The solar PV sector has expanded massively in recent years. Also and with countries including India and China getting into the market space. Furthermore they announcing ambitious solar PV targets.
However, there are no signs of this growth abating in the near future. Because GBI Research predicts global solar PV installed capacity to reach 331 GW by 2020 from 97 GW in 2012. Therefore climbing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.6%.
Why the Growth?
Spurred on by favorable government policies works too. For example and in countries such as Germany, China and the US. The global installed capacity for wind is also expected to prove a key contributor to renewable energy. Expecting to more than doubling from 284 GW in 2012 to 685 GW by 2020. All according to GBI Research forecasts.
The capital costs of renewable energy generation are now higher than those of conventional methods. However government initiatives and technological advances have steadily decreased renewable generation expenditure. Especially over the last four to five years. Therefore lowering the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) and further driving the industry.
* Cost of Power Generation – Renewables Compete with Conventional Alternatives as the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) , driven down by Technological Developments and Mass Deployments
*This report provides the levelized cost of electricity for power generation from renewable resources such as biomass, wind and solar PV from 2011 to 2020.
*This report built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.
Modern bioenergy leads the growth of all renewables to 2023, according to latest IEA market forecast
Modern bioenergy will have the biggest growth in renewable resources between 2018 and 2023, underscoring its critical role in building a robust renewable portfolio and ensuring a more secure and sustainable energy system, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest market forecast.
In conclusion, renewables will continue their expansion in the next five years. That’s covering 40% of global energy consumption growth. All according to the IEA’s Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report. Their use continues to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector. Also and will account for almost a third of total world electricity generation in 2023. Because of weaker policy support and added barriers to deployment, renewables use expands far more slowly in the transport and heat sectors.
While the growth in solar PV and wind set to continue in the electricity sector, bioenergy remains the largest source of renewable energy because of its widespread use in heat and transport, sectors in which other renewables now play a smaller role.
The focus on bioenergy is part of the IEA’s analysis of “blind spots” of the energy system. Those issues that are critical to the energy sector but that receive less attention than they deserve. They are such as the impact of air conditioners on electricity demand. As well as the growing impact of petrochemicals on global oil demand. Assuming strong sustainability measures are in force, the report identifies additional untapped potential. Potential for bioenergy to “green” and diversify energy usage. Especially in the industry and transport sectors.
China leads global growth in renewable energy. That’s clearly as a result of policies to decarbonise all sectors and cut harmful local air pollution. Also it then becomes the largest consumer of renewable energy. Therefore surpassing the European Union by 2023. Of the world’s largest energy consumers, Brazil and Costa Rica has the highest share of renewables by far. That’s almost 45% of total final energy consumption in 2023 and now 100% for Costs Rica. All driven by significant contribution of bioenergy and hydropower.
Meanwhile, solar PV dominates renewable electricity capacity expansion. Renewable capacity additions of 178 gigawatts (GW) in 2017 broke another record. Thereby accounting for more than two-thirds of global net electricity capacity growth for the first time. Solar PV capacity expanded the most (97 GW). That’s over half of which was in China. Meanwhile, onshore wind additions globally declined for the second year in a row, and hydropower growth continued to decelerate.
Solar PV capacity is forecast to expand by almost 600 GW – more than all other renewable power technologies combined, or as much as twice Japan’s total capacity, reaching 1 terawatt (TW) by the end of the forecast period. Despite recent policy changes, China remains the absolute solar PV leader by far, holding almost 40% of global installed PV capacity in 2023. The United States remains the second-largest growth market for solar PV, followed by India, whose capacity quadruples .
Lest We Forget Wind!
Wind remains the second-largest contributor to renewable capacity growth, while hydropower remains the largest renewable electricity source by 2023. Similar to last year’s forecast, wind capacity expected to expand by 60%. Meanwhile, spurred by technological progress and significant cost reductions, offshore wind capacity triples, with growth moving beyond Europe to Asia and North America.
Even with renewable energy technologies becoming increasingly competitive, right policies and market design are critical. Under an accelerated case, which assumes greater supportive government measures, expanding renewables in electricity and in transport could be 25% higher.
Untapped potential of bioenergy in cement, sugar and ethanol industries is also significant. Bioenergy growth in the industry, transport and electricity sectors combined could be as much as that of other renewables in the electricity sector. A significant proportion of this potential relies on wastes and residues. Those that offer low life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition, mitigate concerns over land-use change. In addition, using these resources can improve waste management. Finally and improve air quality.
Source: IEA.org and GBI RESEARCH, NEW YORK (GBI Research), 27 March 2013