I mean at the rate humans are emitting carbon into the atmosphere. Folks, again to be blunt, I mean….it’s not good. For the Earth may suffer irreparable damage and a rise in sea level that could last tens of thousands of years. All according to a new analysis published this week.
Problems with the Climate Debate and rising sea level
Too much of the climate change policy debate has focused on observations of the past 150 years and their impact on global warming and sea level rise by the end of this century, the authors say. Instead, policy-makers and the public should also be considering the longer-term impacts of climate change.
The researchers’ analysis is being published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change.
In addition, Thomas Stocker of the University of Bern in Switzerland, who is past-co-chair of the IPCC’s Working Group I. He said the focus on climate change at the end of the 21st century needs to be shifted toward a much longer-term perspective.
Longer Term View to Rise in Sea Level
Sea level rise is one of the most compelling impacts of global warming. Yet its effects are just starting to be seen. The latest IPCC report, for example, calls for sea level rise of just one meter. I mean by the year 2100. In their analysis, however, the authors look at four difference sea level-rise scenarios. All based on different rates of warming. That’s from a low end. One that could only be reached with massive efforts to eliminate fossil fuel use. I mean over the next few decades. Or to a higher rate. One based on the consumption of half the remaining fossil fuels. That’s over the next few centuries.
With just two degrees (Celsius) warming in the low-end scenario, sea levels are predicted to eventually rise by about 25 meters. With seven degrees warming at the high-end scenario, the rise is estimated at 50 meters. I mean although over a period of several centuries to millennia.
10%
Clark said for the low-end scenario. For that’s only an estimated 122 countries have at least 10 percent of their population in areas that will be directly affected. All by rising sea levels. So that’s some 1.3 billion. I mean or 20 percent of the global population. Yes that live on lands that may be directly affected. The impacts become greater as the warming and sea level rise increases.
Sea Level Rise
I mean sea level rise may not seem like such a big deal today. However, we are making choices that will affect our grandchildren’s grandchildren. Furthermore and and beyond.
The new paper makes the fundamental point. One that considering the long time scales of the carbon cycle. Also of climate change. For that means reducing emissions slightly. I mean it’s either significant or it’s not sufficient.
50 Years alone
Stocker said that in the last 50 years alone, humans have changed the climate on a global scale. Thereby initiating the Anthropocene. For that’s a new geological era. One with fundamentally altered living conditions. I mean for the next many thousands of years.
Sponsors
The researchers’ work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. In addition the U.S. Department of Energy and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. Also the German Science Foundation. Finally and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
By Mark Floyd, 541-737-0788, mark.floyd@oregonstate.edu
CORVALLIS, Ore.
Sources: Peter Clark, 541-737-1247, clarkp@geo.oregonstate.edu; Thomas Stocker, +41 31 631 44 62, stocker@climate.unibe.ch; Daniel Schrag, 617-233-2554, schrag@eps.harvard.edu
This article is available online at: http://bit.ly/1Ph1leZ
