The supply of cobalt has emerged as a potential risk to the pace of growth in electrified transport over the next few years. I mean especially for electric buses.
London and New York, May 21, 2018 – The electrification of road transport will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s. For that’s thanks to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing. Especially with sales of electric cars racing to 28%. Moreover and those of electric buses to 84%. That’s of their respective global markets by 2030.
The latest long-term forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) shows sales of electric vehicles (EVs), increasing. That’s from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025. Also and then surging to 30 million in 2030. That’s as they establish cost advantage over internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. China will lead this transition. That’s with sales there accounting for almost 50% of the global EV market in 2025. Moreover and 39% in 2030.
The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining. For that’s in the mid-2020s. That’s as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold. That’s equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. ‘Shared mobility’ cars will be a small market. However a growing element.
Moving e-buses forward in sales will be even more rapid. I mean than for electric cars. For that’s according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows electric buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership. That’s than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China. Finally and electric models are on track to dominate the global market. That’s by the late 2020s.
For the entire post, May 21, 2018