The 2024 US Election Matters for Climate, Energy, emissions

Let’s talk about how climate is related to energy and emissions. Climate change is reshaping our lives and communities in irreversible ways. Rising temperatures, unpredictable storms and devastating fires aren’t happening “somewhere else.”

They’re here now and affecting:

1. the air we breathe
2. the food we grow
3. the homes we live in.

In addition, these challenges are expected to get much worse. Especially as our temperatures continue to rise. This will have devastating implications for our jobs and economy. In addition, our families’ ability to stay healthy and safe and our geopolitical stability.

Climate, Energy, Emissions: Too Many People Are Ignoring It

But somehow, our climate  rarely makes the shortlist of election issues. That’s because it’s often framed as a niche, partisan concern.

Political Campaigns Neglect These Issues: climate, energy and emissions

Public attention is still focused on other hot-button issues. Such as climate and energy policy that can or can’t create net emissions. Because it’s been largely missing from campaign discussions. There is too little recognition of how choices made by the next administration could determine the fate of our country and planet.

Harris on Climate, Energy and Emissions

Broadly speaking, we know a Kamala Harris administration would continue many of President Biden’s policies that support the clean energy transition and build greater resilience, especially in underserved communities.

Trump of Climate, Energy and Emissions 

If Donald Trump wins this election, his administration is expected to do the opposite. All to push policies that would expand America’s growing dominance in fossil fuels and also stymie efforts to move toward a cleaner energy economy. That’s both in the U.S. and abroad; including taking us out of the Paris Agreement. 

Paying for Fossil Fuels Twice? The climate’s affected by energy and emissions.

There’s a strong chance we will spend more tax dollars on our energy resources. However, we now fully understand the costs of fossil fuels. For they are not truly captured on our electricity bills. As well as at the gas pump.

First of all, we pay for using fossil fuels twice over. That’s when we purchase them and when we pay for the damages linked to using them.

As taxpayers, consumers, and insurance buyers, we pay for these fossil-fuel-induced damages. Essentially in many ways: to restore destroyed communities from more frequent and ferocious natural disasters.

All to build expensive new infrastructure to try to protect ourselves from nature’s new “normal,” to blunt revenue and job loss. Yes job losses in agriculture, fisheries, forestry, recreation, and tourism. Especially with lower human productivity rates as heat and humidity ratchet up. Then with higher health costs and burdens – to name a few. Financial experts also expect huge hits to our GDP from climate change.

Swiss RE

For example, Swiss RE, the world’s largest reinsurance company, projects we will lose almost 20% of global GDP if we hit a 3.2°C increase – close to the trajectory we are on.

Efficiency Across the Economy 

Our two greatest assets in fighting climate change could be curtailed: our drive for greater efficiency across our economy (saving money and decreasing emissions at the same time) and increasing our usage of renewable energy (which is now cheaper than fossil fuels on an apples-to-apples, unsubsidized basis). While much of this is controlled at the state level and probably much would continue, rolling back federal regulations will have significant impact.

Climate impacts will get worse than if we don’t. Burning fossil fuels is responsible for 73% of our global emissions. Despite pollution and greenhouse gas emissions as of today, it’s getting better.  That’s primarily due to replacing coal in our power mix. For with natural gas and renewables, the U.S. still continues. It’s the second largest contributor of global emissions after China.

Inflation Reduction Act

We are making progress, and recent policies like the Inflation Reduction Act are poised to bring emissions down further if fully enacted. Importantly, we’ve been able to grow our economy robustly while decreasing our emissions, decoupling fossil fuel usage from our economic growth.

For if we backtrack, it will mean global emissions will not fall as quickly as humanity needs. That’s leading to more:

1. intense heat waves
2. heavier rainfalls
3. more ferocious hurricanes and
4. more ferocious wildfires.

Emissions

Emissions anywhere in the world affect people everywhere on the globe.   Therefore, the likelihood of crossing climate “tipping points” ratchets up. These are critical thresholds. Essentially in the Earth’s climate system beyond which a small change can lead to big and potentially irreversible changes within those systems.

Think of it as a chair tipped on its back legs. After a certain point, it falls backward to the ground even if you are not pushing it. These tipping points can change how large parts of Earth’s systems function.

That’s from changing:

1. where rain falls
2. how ocean currents flow
3. the rates of sea level rise
4. societies around the globe.

Even Elon Musk knows that once these points are crossed, we can’t get our “old” Earth back. Scientists think tipping points become increasingly more likely after we break the 1.5°C increase, which is expected to happen in the next decade at our current rate of emissions.  

Competitive Edge

The U.S. will lose out in competing for the next generation of energy. Clean energy is booming around the world. Especially because solar is expected to overtake coal by 2025 and be the primary energy source by the early 2030s. According to the International Energy Agency, even projects that combine storage with renewable energy are becoming competitive. Especially in costs with fossil fuels in most parts of the world.

Importantly, these new forms of energy will continue to drop in cost. Essentially as technological gains and economies of scale are achieved. That has happened significantly for solar and electric cars. Investing in them will lead to more efficient and inexpensive energy systems. Essentially once the initial build-out of the new technology is made.

Other Technologies 

Other new technologies like different types of battery storage, nuclear, fission, green hydrogen. In addition, new types of geothermal hold promise as well. All of these will need government support to evolve and scale. While the U.S. continues to lead in innovation, China also dominates. Especially in manufacturing and also market share of many of these new technologies. 

Republicans will be hurt first. Because climate denial and skepticism is embraced by so many in the conservative base as a “litmus test” of loyalty. For it is very difficult for conservative policy makers to push policies that can alleviate or prepare for the threat. Many Republicans live in some of the places – the South and Midwest – that are most vulnerable to higher temperatures. In addition more severe hurricanes, sea level rise. Finally, agricultural disruption tied to climate change.

Local Economies

Their local economies will be among the first to be harmed as these challenges increase, and these regions are projected to have some of the steepest GDP losses. If Trump wins the presidency, it will further cement climate obstructionism, making it harder for conservatives to put forward solutions to keep their constituents safer.

Conclusion

This election will impact our future in more ways than many Americans understand. While the energy transition is global and has significant support from business and at the state and local levels, federal policy plays a critical role. Our choice of president, and of our senate and house representatives, will have a major influence on whether this transition continues at its current or accelerated rate, or significantly slowed. And unfortunately, we are running out of time.

Carbon dioxide emissions stay in the atmosphere for centuries, so what we choose today will impact our world for generations. We are in a race to get emissions down before climate conditions spin out of control. We need both parties to educate their constituents about the scale and scope of the problem and to put forward solutions. But right now, nobody is talking about it.

Author: Kathleen Biggins, Founder & President of C-Change Conversations