Renewables are covering all new global power demand in the first-half 2025 comparison examined here. Ember’s October 2025 analysis found that growth in wind and solar generation exceeded the increase in global electricity demand from January through June, compared with the same months in 2024. This is an aggregate energy comparison, not a claim that renewables supplied every new load at every moment or met all electricity demand.
Global electricity demand grew by 2.6% in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, solar energy generation rose by 31% and wind generation by 7.7%. Percentage growth rates start from different bases; the absolute increases in terawatt-hours establish whether generation growth matched demand growth.
Renewables Are Covering All New Demand: Solar’s Contribution
Solar power generation rose by 306 terawatt-hours in the first half of 2025, compared with the same period a year earlier. This measures additional electricity produced, not newly installed generation capacity. Capacity is measured in units such as gigawatts; generation over a period is measured in units such as terawatt-hours.
That solar increase covered 83% of global electricity demand growth in Ember’s first-half 2025 analysis. One renewable source nearly matched all demand growth, with wind adding further generation.
This solar surge isn’t happening by accident. Technology improvements have made solar panels more efficient while costs have plummeted. Additionally, countries are finally treating climate goals seriously. As a result, solar installations are breaking records month after month.
Wind Power’s Contribution
While solar drew headlines, wind energy also played an important role. Its generation rose 7.7% globally in the first half of 2025. Together, these sources increased their renewable contribution to electricity supply, although weather and regional conditions affect their output.
The first-half results show how wind and solar contributed during that specific period. They do not establish a guaranteed share of demand growth or a particular generation total for 2026. Forecasts must be identified by their publication date, assumptions, and scope.
This was more than a comparison of installed capacity. Ember reported a modest decline in global fossil electricity generation during the same first-half period. It does not by itself establish a permanent decline in every market.
Coal Gets Knocked Off Its Throne
In the first half of 2025, renewables supplied 34.3% of global electricity and coal supplied 33.1%, according to Ember. Its analysis found renewable energy sources outpacing coal for the first time on record. These are generation shares for that six-month period.
Coal generation fell by 0.6% in the same first-half comparison. This contributed to a small reduction in fossil electricity generation, rather than the disappearance of fossil electricity.
The International Energy Agency assesses renewable growth in its dated outlooks. However, forecast shares should be distinguished from measured generation. Claims that renewables will account for a particular share of power supplies need a specified report and forecast year; the first-half Ember results should not be relabeled as full-year outcomes.
Regional Success Stories and Challenges
The renewable revolution isn’t happening uniformly across the globe. Some regions are leading the charge, while others lag behind.
Ember found that fossil electricity generation fell in China and India in the first half of 2025 as clean generation growth exceeded demand growth. Demand patterns also mattered: India’s demand growth was much lower than during the heatwave-affected first half of 2024.
In the European Union, lower hydro, bioenergy, and wind output coincided with increased gas and some coal generation in the first half of 2025. This regional result differs from the global aggregate.
The United States also differed from the global pattern in the first half of 2025. Ember linked increased coal generation to a period when clean generation growth did not meet rising demand, alongside switching from gas to coal.
These regional differences highlight an important point. The global renewable transition is accelerating, but local factors matter enormously. Weather patterns, existing infrastructure, and policy decisions all influence how quickly each region can embrace clean energy.
The Infrastructure Challenge Ahead
This renewable surge creates new problems that need solutions. Rapid clean energy growth is putting unprecedented strain on electricity grids worldwide. Many power systems weren’t designed to handle intermittent sources like solar and wind at such massive scales.
Energy storage becomes critical as renewables grow, alongside other flexibility options. When solar and wind output falls, supply can also be balanced through dispatchable generation, interconnections, and demand response. The right mix depends on the power system.
Grid modernization is equally important. Smart grids that can balance variable renewable sources with demand in real-time are essential. Without these upgrades, curtailment and negative pricing events will become more common as renewable capacity outpaces grid capabilities.
Behind-the-Meter Solar Changes Everything
Rooftop solar and home battery systems can change how households use electricity, although costs and benefits vary. DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 projected behind-the-meter solar systems would supply 13% of global electricity by 2060. That is a dated model projection, and batteries store electricity rather than generate it.
This shift empowers consumers to become energy producers. Instead of just buying electricity from utilities, homeowners and businesses can generate, store, and even sell power back to the grid.
A more distributed model can complement centralized generation. Potential benefits depend on equipment, controls, and grid design. Rooftop panels alone do not guarantee power during an outage; backup operation requires suitable equipment.
Renewable Power: What This Means for Fossil Fuels
Natural gas and coal face changing competition as renewables account for substantial capacity additions. They remain part of the electricity mix, and a small global decline over six months does not establish their future trajectory in every region.
Coal’s future depends on demand, plant economics, and policy. As renewable costs continue falling and climate policies change, the competitiveness of individual plants can shift. Retirement schedules and new construction differ across countries; a permanent worldwide decline cannot be inferred from the first-half data alone.
Natural gas finds itself in a complicated position. While cleaner than coal, it’s still a fossil fuel that produces carbon emissions. Some view gas as a “bridge fuel” that provides reliability while renewable infrastructure develops. However, improving battery storage and grid flexibility could shorten this bridge significantly.
Looking Toward 2060
DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025 projected that electricity demand would more than double by 2060. Forecast shares for renewables and other clean sources depend on the model and assumptions. Its 2025 solar outlook projected solar PV at roughly 47% of global generation in 2060. These are dated projections, distinct from observed 2025 data.
This transformation requires massive investment in grid infrastructure, energy storage, and flexible generation capacity. However, the economic case for clean energy continues strengthening as technology costs decline and climate policies expand.
The first-half 2025 results show that renewable generation growth can keep pace with rising electricity demand. A world powered entirely by clean, renewable energy remains an ambition requiring sustained investment, flexibility, and policy; the six-month results do not guarantee that outcome.
The transition underway shows that clean energy can expand rapidly. Competition with fossil fuels on cost varies with financing, grid connections, fuel prices, and system requirements. The 2025 first-half figures mark progress, while the pace and durability of future change remain open questions.
Sources:
- Ember Climate – Global Electricity Review
- International Energy Agency – Electricity Market Report 2025
- DNV Energy Transition Outlook 2024
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Editor’s note — October 17, 2026: Clarified that the reported demand-growth comparison covers January–June 2025, not every hour or all electricity use. Corrected generation versus capacity terminology, identified forecasts as projections, removed unsubstantiated 2026 and 2060 totals, qualified claims of inevitable fossil-fuel decline, and corrected wording and an image-caption typo. Sources: Ember’s first-half 2025 analysis, Ember’s October 2025 release, DNV’s 2025 solar projections, and IEA’s grid-integration guidance.
